Global Economy on the Brink of Recession Due to US Tariff Policy - Survey.

According to a Reuters survey, most economists believe that a recession will occur in the global economy this year. This sentiment is driven by the implementation of tariffs by the US on imported goods, which has created negative sentiments in the business environment.

Previously, economists forecasted stable growth for the global economy. However, the introduction of tariffs by Trump, aimed at changing global trade, has led to a global shock in financial markets, losses of three trillion dollars in market value, and difficulties for investors in his assets.

Even with the postponement of the most difficult tariffs for many trading partners for a few months, the overall tariff collection of 10% remains in force, and tariff rates on goods from China remain extremely high.

'Companies find it hard to plan even for July when they don't know what the tariffs will be. Try planning a year ahead - who knows what that will look like, let alone five years', - said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

Over 92% of experts believe that tariffs have a negative impact on business sentiment, and only 8% describe it as neutral. Three-quarters of economists have revised their projections for global economic growth in 2025 downwards.

The growth forecasts for China and Russia - 4.5% and 1.7% respectively - remain unchanged, exceeding the projected growth for the US. Other forecasts have remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter.

In the survey, 60% of economists expressed the opinion that the risk of a global recession this year is high or very high. Only 66 economists rated it as low, including four who consider it very low.

'We could cancel the tariffs today, but it would still cause a lot of harm due to the unreliability of the US as a partner in bilateral and multilateral agreements', - emphasized Timothy Graf, head of macro strategy for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at State Street.

Conclusion

The economists' survey indicates that new US tariffs imposed by Trump have a negative impact on the global economy and create instability in the business environment. Most experts foresee a high risk of a global recession this year. The growth forecasts for the economies of China and Russia remain unchanged and exceed the projected growth of the US. Trump's tariff rates create unfavorable conditions for companies that face challenges in planning and production. This could impact the global economy in the near future.